The fact is that there is no money “in” Social Security now. It’s completely dependent upon current and future earnings… and the government’s ability to continue taxing at current levels (at least). It’s very likely that means testing will be applied to Social Security earnings soon, so that one will have to prove need in order to receive a benefit at all. (Benefits are already included in taxable income.)
What the Social Security Trust Fund (what a marvelous oxymoron that is) has is a pile of IOUs from the rest of the government that has “borrowed” from FICA for I don’t know how long. As long as you believe that the government can pay its bills… and as long as we let them cheapen the money as they always have, then there’s no reason to think they can’t do that, I suppose.
But there is a huge demographic problem looming, in the confluence of several statistics:
1. The so-called Baby Boomers are aging, retiring earlier and earlier and collecting benefits. The generations that follow them are not so populous, so a decreasing number of people will be paying benefits for an increasingly large number.
2. That retiring population is also healthier, in general, than preceding generations, and living longer.
3. The current workforce is shrinking in absolute numbers, and is having to compete with Chinese and Indian workers (to name two examples) who have historically worked for much less, and will for decades to come, so their own earnings are pinched and they don’t have room in their budgets to increase their own “contributions” to FICA when that gets proposed.