Unfortunately, it’s a political game and you’re the football. If the debt ceiling is not raised, Obama will have complete control over which bills get paid and which do not. If SS is not paid seniors will be very angry at ‘someone’. If Obama believes he can shift the blame to Republicans, he may not pay it. The more he can generate anger towards the Republicans the more likely he is to win next year. If however, he believes that the anger will directed at him, your check is assured. The whole issue depends on his political polling.
So if the Republicans will be blamed, he’ll throw you under the bus. If the Democrats will be blamed, you’re safe. Either way there’s enough money to cover, that’s just not the criteria that will be used.