@tedd I think the debate was an enormous win for Romney, and we’ll see that in the poll results in a day or two, unless it is ameliorated by these numbers. I think the traditional wisdom was that debates don’t matter so much. And 538 author did a little analysis yesterday leading him to predict a 2.2 point change in the poll results in Romney’s favor.
But I think this debate was different. I think Romney really surprised a lot of people, including Democrats, and that his performance was so good that it will lead people to respond emotionally instead of on facts. He seemed very presidential and he also seemed reasonable. He did not seem like an ideologue. It seemed like he was finally turning towards the middle and that he meant it. He knew what it would take to govern, and he wasn’t going to do those radical things he’s been talking about.
Now if he could make me feel that way, and I’m a hard core Democrat, imagine how he made the undecideds feel? I think we dismiss the impact of this debate at our peril. And that’s why today’s jobs news is so important, although not as impactful at the debate.
What’s even more important, is that Obama has to expose Romney either as a liar or as a flipflopper. He has to show him as a snake oil salesman. If he can’t do that, this race is a hell of a lot closer than we thought.