General Question

DrasticDreamer's avatar

Presidential primary polls?

Asked by DrasticDreamer (23988points) July 14th, 2015
19 responses
“Great Question” (4points)

Apparently I suck at Googling because I’m seeing conflicting results about who is coming in second behind Hillary Clinton. Can someone provide a good, up-to-date link for me?

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Answers

jca's avatar

Joe Biden #2? Amazing.

jca (36054points)“Great Answer” (0points)
JLeslie's avatar

I read @DoNotKnow‘s link and I don’t think it is a good poll for who people will vote for. First, it is read to them, and if it had been written and they could stare at the results might be different. Most polls are done verbally, but I still think it’s worth mentioning. Second, Joe Biden’s name is mentioned first. Third, Biden and Hillary are the most recognizable names nationally, but once we get closer to election time people will know more names, especially since Biden is not running as far as I know.

DoNotKnow's avatar

@JLeslie: “I read @DoNotKnow‘s link and I don’t think it is a good poll for who people will vote for.”

I didn’t link to a poll. That site gathers poll results from many sources. So, if you click on the Democratic nomination, you’ll see that it lists polls from CNN, Fox, NBC News, Wall Street Journal, and university polls. The site also maintains a history of the polls so you can view them over time.

JLeslie's avatar

That’s my mistake. Thanks! I didn’t scroll down, I just had read the top one on the link. I still think until we get closer it’s impossible to know. People don’t know most of the other candidates. Hillary is the only person known nationally by the majority of the citizenry, except for Biden, who isn’t running. Not to say popularity doesn’t matter, it does.

jaytkay's avatar

At this point, it’s simply a measure of name recognition. Most people know very little about current affairs.

On the Republican side, you will see one candidate after another become the frontrunner, whenever someone shows up on people’s televisions.

The poll question is essentially, “In the past week, who was given the most attention on FOX TV and AM radio.”

It was humorous in 2012, when Herman Cain was “the conservative favorite!”
And Newt Gingrich was “the conservative favorite!”
And Rick Santorum was “the conservative favorite!”
And Rick Perry was “the conservative favorite!”
And Michelle Bachmann was “the conservative favorite!”
And Newt Gingrich was “the conservative favorite!”

Here it is in a graph.

LostInParadise's avatar

Nate Silver has a pretty good track record on calling elections. He got every state in the last presidential election, though he was a little bit off in the Congressional elections last year, but so was everybody else. He has the 2016 presidential election as a tossup The article is from April, but I don’t see much as having changed since then.

One thing that must be considered is that the electorate is starting to turn away from neo-liberal policies. That is why Bernie Sanders is able to draw large crowds. Clinton will have to pull away from some of the current policies, which she has started to do somewhat. If she is able to separate herself from her past and from Obama then current presidential approval ratings may not mean that much. As the wage gap widens between the 1% and the 99%, I get a sense of change coming on, but I am not predicting when it will finally kick in.

keobooks's avatar

On the Republican ticket, who is John Bolton? Poor guy is getting less votes than “No One” “Other” and “Unsure”

Darth_Algar's avatar

@LostInParadise

Yeah, Bernie’s pulling in big numbers at rallies now, but I wonder how many of those numbers will be there when it matters – on election day. Lots of candidates draw the crowds in at the campaign rallies, then that support seems next to non-existent at the voting booth. Rallies are fun. They’re kinda like a concert and you can get fun little swag there. Voting, on the other hand, is a chore that no one wants to do.

Don’t get me wrong – I support Bernie Sanders and I’ll damn sure be voting for him in the primary and then in the general (if he’s still in the race by that point), but I also know how apathetic Americans can be when it comes to actually voting.

LostInParadise's avatar

I don’t think Sanders stands a chance, but the crowds he is drawing is an indication of dissatisfaction among the electorate, especially among the younger voters who account for the majority of those attending his rallies.

Darth_Algar's avatar

@LostInParadise

“Younger voters” – Again, how many of those people actually do or will vote? If all those attending his rallies would actually vote then Sanders would stand a chance. A pretty big chance. People love to express their dissatisfaction. When it comes to actually doing something however most folks just can’t be arsed.

SquirrelEStuff's avatar

The only thing polls are good for is making the masses think that any candidate who would actually challenge the status quo, doesn’t have a chance.
Pretty powerful tool….

zenvelo's avatar

@keobooks John Bolton was US Ambassador to the UN under George Bush. He is a neocon out of the Grover Norquist wing of the Republican Party, thinks we need to go to war again.

DrasticDreamer's avatar

I’m honestly surprised at how well Sanders is doing. I also don’t think he stands a chance (but will still be voting for him), but I’m used to Americans being even more apathetic than this. I’d like to take it as a sign that people are waking up, but I’m cynical.

cyn's avatar

My boyfriend (hehehe, do you remember petethepothead?) and I were talking about the Democratic candidates last night. Here’s what we both think: Sanders has a lot of strong supporters and still attracting more! Hillary, on the other hand is only losing supporters- it’s pretty much over for her. If Biden enters the race, he will only attract Hillary’s present supporters, not Bernie’s. If Biden enters the race as Bernie’s VP, he will also be doing Bernie Sanders a favor by putting his name in the media(t.v.). The reason why you don’t hear about Sanders in the media is because he isn’t bought by big corporations like every other candidate is (except for Trump, but he pretty much owns the media, so…) Anyway, I actually do think the Sanders can win the primaries! FEELTHEBERN!
Also, here’s a link so you know how you can vote for Bernie! voteforbernie.org

DrasticDreamer's avatar

@cyn Yes! Of course I remember petethepothead! You guys are dating!? That’s so cool. :D For how long now?

cyn's avatar

Officially 2 year now. LOL! It’s been so long though.

DrasticDreamer's avatar

@cyn That’s so awesome. :) It makes me smile, because it reminds me of the old Fluther days.

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