How well did the polls predict the outcome of the election yesterday in the UK?
Please, do not include the exit poll.
I loosely followed the campaigning in the UK for yesterday’s election. I did not follow the polls at all. I remember hearing that the Tories had a sizable favorability rating at the outset that faded. The opposite happened to Labour who went from low favorability ratings to higher ones.
Did the polls point to a hung Parliament? Did they predict a resurgent Labour? Did they anticipate the losses suffered by the Tories? Two high-profile members of the Scottish National Party lost their seats. Was that predicted?
I’m curious, because I’m wondering what the poll-makers have learned from their mistakes in the Brexit campaign and the 2016 US Presidential race.
I’m also curious, because today’s Guardian news reports that everyone at the Labour HQ were surprised at the outcome of a hung Parliament. In other words, their polling did not predict it.
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