If the US had lost more carriers at Midway and had not sunk the majority of the Japanese carriers, it would have been a huge setback for the US Navy.

Yes the US would still have excellent chances to win the war, as long as the will to keep waging it held out. The Japanese had insufficient ability for long-range offensive action to actually be trying to do more than get a favorable peace treaty out of the USA, and the US had ridiculous capacity to build more ships etc.

So the actual Japanese strategic goal was to hurt the US so much that we sued for peace with favorable terms, and the plan to do that was to win a major naval victory, which was the main reason to go after Midway – to force a major engagement and win it.

What it would actually have taken to get the US to sue for peace, I don’t know, but I think the odds were pretty long against that happening even with some major naval defeats. Maybe a shocking loss of huge amounts of men if a naval defeat led to many losses from sunken troop transports, or something.

But many major naval defeats were pretty unlikely, I would say. So I think the most likely result in any case was a US victory. If the US had lost at Midway, it would have been delayed, however.

The U.S.A. still had the atomic bomb. That’s what crushed the Japanese will to destroy and dominate.

I think the Japanese would have captured Hawaii and that would have made it far more difficult to force them back westward. They would have refloated the battleships that the US did and would have used them against the US. If the US didn’t have to contend with Germany and any super weapons they were working on, then eventually we would have forced them back. But it probably would have taken five more years.
I don’t think Japan would ever have invaded the US. Too many people here have guns.

@kritiper NRA member much ! !

My guess would be that the war might have lasted perhaps a few weeks or months longer. But the point is that it is a waste of time speculating on Japan’s chances of successfully subjugating the United States. The fact that the U.S. had fully cracked the Japanese military codes rendered any offensive ambitions of Japan doomed. Besides, the thing understood by the end of the war was that the world, including us—EVERYBODY had underestimated by several degrees of magnitude the staggering industrial capacity and technical expertise of the United States. Combined with the fact that we had the manpower AND the oil, neither the Japanese nor Germans over time ever stood a chance.

Distance was a major issue. The atomic bomb was useless unless there was an airbase from which to launch the B-29’s. That’s why it was important that the US capture Tinian.
Everybody in the US having guns to repel any invaders was in addition to the Home Guard, of which my grandfather was a member. This was a little known service for those who were unable to join a military force but could fight here in the states if needed.

@kritiper The Japanese had no reasonable way to conquer Hawaii, and no plausible way to resupply an army on Hawaii even if they captured it.

Even less so, an ability to reach the West Coast with any substantial force.

And the entire populations of both Japan and Germany could not successfully occupy the United States, let alone Russia.

Since it never happened, it’s endlessly moot.