@Jeruba “I don’t understand your remark about the bull’s-eye, but if you thought my question was facetious, it wasn’t.”
Not at all!
I’m not familiar with Miodinow. There’s an error people make where they draw the bullseye around the dart/arrow after it’s been thrown/shot. I think this is the error being described by Miodinow, but I’m not certain which is why I responded to you in the way I did. Apologies for not being more clear.
To further clarify the analogy: we do thousands of chance based things every day. Due to the nature of randomness, it’s expected for there to be clusters from time-to-time. It’s not unusual to have coincidences like @Jaxk experienced if we define the conditions after they happen (as my calculation did) across all possible sets of coincidences in your life. That’s what I meant by painting the bullseye after you’ve thrown the dart.