I think A-Rod is a lock to win the American League MVP – having just joined the 500 home run club – especially if the Yankees make the playoffs. If the Yankees miss the playoffs, it might be Vlad.
The National League race is wide open. Three Mets (José Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltrán) will be candidates, which makes any one of them winning less likely (despite the fact that I believe one of them would be a Condorcet winner). Prince Fielder is probably going to win.