It could be longer than two months. Unless the Massachusetts state legislature changes the law and allows the governor to appoint an interim Senator, it will be at least 160 days before Massachusetts can elect a new Senator.
Orin Hatch thinks that if Kennedy had been an active part of the process, health care legislation would be much further along. With Obama keeping his hands clear of the legislative process, and no particularly effective negotiator on the Liberal side, I doubt if there will be any compromise. Democrats will have to get the legislation through by brute force.
Of course, Republicans fought Medicare tooth and nail all the way through until the last moment, and then supported it when it was inevitable. I doubt if history will repeat itself, but who knows. If Republicans don’t support health reform, they may be on the short end of the electoral stick for decades.
On NPR this morning, there was a clip of Reagan, then a candidate for Governor of California, calling Medicare socialism. Can you find an elected conservative today who opposes Medicare?
I think that Republicans are in danger of becoming like the boy who called “wolf.” “The socialists are coming! The socialists are coming!” Have they said this one too many times? Are Republicans even relevant any more?
In any case, I think that Kennedy’s passing means the chances for bipartisan legislation have been reduced drastically. Republicans feel there is no serious negotiator on the Democratic side, and that the best political move they can make is to oppose health reform as strongly as they can, hoping it will fail, and they can take over. It’s a highly risky strategy, but then, Republicans never were ones for looking very far into the future.