It is far too soon to tell. Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both faced very low polling numbers early in their administrations, but rebounded in time for reelection. @Marina has it right, it’s all about the economy. I would expect to see some loss of Democratic seats in congress in the midterm elections, but Obama’s likelihood of being reelected is all about the economy and a little about the wars. If the economy rebounds (and it is likely to) and is doing well in 2012, and if most U.S. troops are out of Iraq and Afghanistan in such a way that it can be spun as victory easily enough, then he’ll be virtually unbeatable. If only the economy is good but we’re still stuck in Afghanistan and/or Iraq, then it might be a little tougher, but he’ll still probably win.
Frankly, from a political strategy standpoint, he couldn’t be in a better spot. The threat of a prolonged depression exists, but in all likelihood the economy can go nowhere but up. By 2012 most people will likely be doing better than they are now, by far. That will mean a lot. He can sink as low as he needs to in popularity now, as long as the 3 year effects of his actions are positive, then his current popularity won’t matter (except to congresspersons seeking reelection).
Congresspersons is in the Google Chrome spell check dictionary. Heeheee