I’m not involved with special ops, but know some people and have Navy experience.
I would suggest not enlisting just for buds, chances are good that it won’t work out. It’s not even usually for lack of motivation or ability, it’s almost always for injuries.
It would seem best, as suggested earlier, to pick a rate and try for special programs along the way. If someone really has what it takes, is a talented swimmer, and has amazing endurance, they will get picked up for something. There’s no need to lock yourself into it even before boot camp, to the exclusion of other opportunities.
Just for example, I was in a boot camp division of ~80 people.
~10 didn’t get through boot camp on time.
~30 had buds contracts. I think about half got there, and I didn’t hear about any making it through. I later met some in the fleet with new rates they had to strike for. None were happy about it.
~30 had guaranteed schools, usually in technical rates. I think we all made it to the fleet.
~10 had guaranteed schools with special options like rescue swimmer, swcc, aircrew, eod, etc.
These seemed to have varying success rates, but relatively good overall. Some special programs have their own rates now, it didn’t used to be like that.
I actually kept track because I was always interested in special programs but never tried for any. I think I lacked the self confidence to do it, but looking back I wish I would have tried. Those programs are the coolest thing about the military.