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It’s almost a toss-up, in absolute terms, but in the real world I think Putin must be crazier. He’s got a bigger field to be crazy in, and he’s been at it longer. Also he is angrier, crueler, and cruder. Musk doesn’t go around killing people, and he tries to help in crises, no matter how weirdly.
Musk makes things. Putin breaks them.
In a contest, though, I would put my money on Musk even if I were sure he was going to lose, just to cheer him on. He’s a nut, but he’s our nut.