If Republicans want to have even the proverbial snowball’s chance in hell, they should not nominate Trump in 2024. However, I don’t think they know that. Much like the Bernie Bros. who don’t understand how marginal a group they are, Trump’s loyalists don’t realize how unpopular he is. They think 2016 proves he’s a viable candidate, not recognizing that he was running against one of the most universally despised politicians of recent decades (until Trump decided elections don’t apply to him in 2020). He won in 2016 SOLELY because a huge number of voters were motivated to vote AGAINST Hillary.
Their inability to accept his unpopularity is what made the 2020 election hoax so easy to sell. Because it fits with their confirmation bias. It can’t be that their Lord and Savior really lost…it must be fraud!
DeSantis on the other hand is an actual experienced governor and politician. Agree or disagree with his policies, he’s not the complete nitwit Trump is. But I don’t think he has the charismatic stranglehold on the GOP’s base that Trump has. And in primaries, the base is what matters. The fact that DeSantis would be the better general election candidate won’t matter. In a Trump v DeSantis showdown, Trump will win the primary.
The question is WILL Trump run? I honestly don’t know. Trump LOVES the adulation he gets from all of this. You can see it on his face. He’s in heaven. But we know that he knows that the fraud thing was a lie. Except for a few sycophants, all of his advisors were telling him so. Many are on record that they did so. So he knows that he couldn’t even beat Joe Biden, who didn’t even RUN A CAMPAIGN. Biden sat in his basement most of the election. Even as narcissistic as Trump is, it’s hard to believe that he doesn’t understand that he would lose in 2024. And Trump HATES to lose. He loses alot…he just never admits it.
So will he run? I don’t know. I know he hates to lose and probably knows he can’t win…but if he cedes the nomination, then DeSantis de facto takes over as the GOP’s figurehead and Trump loses power and influence. It’s hard for me to square that fact with Trump’s inherent self interest and narcissism. This is not a man who gives a flying f*** about the GOP’s goals or ideology. He cares about 1 thing – Trump. So even if he loses in the general election, I think he WILL run…and he WILL f*** up the Republicans for 2024.
That’s my guess. But I have low confidence because Trump is such a wild card.