@phaedryx Pure speculation, eh? Well, anything I say now is completely meaningless as anything other than trash talk. I do think that Obama has had a great number of successes in the last month. But I don’t know if there is any glow from that as far as the people are concerned. The Rasmussen Tracking Poll shows the trend has turned and his approval rating is rising while his disapproval rating is falling. Is this a response to his recent success? I hope so. Will it prove to be a robust trend? I hope so, but I wouldn’t venture to say.
The problem these days, it seems to me, is that people expect things instantly. It’s kind of an internet effect. The California cliffs fall into the ocean? The government better be there tomorrow, shoring things up and dropping new houses from helicopters. Seriously. That’s what people expect, it seems to me. A President has no room to move. It must be here, now.
I don’t think any President can stand up to that. However, there is one other thing that matters a lot, and that is employment and the economy. If the economy starts to improve, and people believe they feel the difference, then suddenly they get all fuzzy-wuzzy with the president.
So, if the current trends keep going—the economy improves at increasingly faster rate, and Obama capitalizes on his strength and can get the Congress to continue to work with him, so he looks like a moderate and a can-do guy, then he’ll win in 2012. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on that, with the caveat that a major disaster could change things right around, and a war could make people solidify behind him if he looks strong.
Two years is a long time in politics. Hell, so is two months. It is astonishing how quickly things can change.