Who… or what—is Malachy? Why should anyone care what he says?
So you’ve got a bunch of old guys sitting around, trying to select a new Pope. Are they going to select someone who is going to be around for a long time, making it impossible for them to ever become Pope? I doubt it. Also, what old man is going to trust someone ten or twenty years younger than they are?
They call Benedict a “transition” pope, but he was in the seat for seven years. That seems pretty long to me. I suspect that we will continue to see “transition” popes. Everyone is a transition from one bit of time to the next.
All the cardinals were appointed by John-Paul or Benedict. They are all in the same mold. I think we will see no great change from the next pope or from any pope, and it doesn’t matter where in the world they come from. The Church has a billion members. It is doing very well. It shepards one seventh of the world’s population. There is no reason for much change. There is every reason to keep things going as they are. There is no reason to elect someone young. There is every reason to elect a stable old head who will keep things going as they are.
I think it makes sense to think of this as an issue of administrative change. The spiritual issues are a side show. What is important is property and political power and stability. What is important is for the Church to extend itself into places like China and the Muslim world. Or, for China and the Muslim world to extend themselves into territory that is the Churches. Or even best—for both to coexist in each other’s territory. That will lead to greater world stability, and hopefully to an end to fanaticism. Though I’m not sure how to end fanaticism.