@Mariah No, it’s not “common sense” per se, but prior probability. Your Bayesian prediction is only as good as your “prior”, and rigorous thought looks at the priors in terms of the science. There is a bit of intuition involved, which is why the frequentists hate it. But it was Bayesian statistical theory that gave Turing the insight to crack Enigma.
In the comic, which is an absurd example (but it’s a comic), the frequentist looked at the data which showed that the sun was going to explode. The data said that it was, therefore the sun is going to explode. The Bayesian looked at the prior probability of it and said, “I’ll bet 50 bucks it’s bullshit”.
Okay, time to sign off. Game of Thrones is about to start. :-)