I’m with @Jaxk on this one. Joe Biden took a situation that was not great but was not nearly as bad as it could have been and he made sure it was pushed farther towards as bad as it could be. His policies are not popular even with Democrats. The entire Democrat party is losing followers because of the direction they are pushing things. So I’m pretty sure you could put Trump back into the mix and he would walk away with it.
He took a porous southern border and put standards into place to help stem the tide. By the way, it should be noted that the Dems fought against every single action he took. The overwhelming feeling in America is that something needs to be done. The Dems are against it so that goes against them. Trump made the country energy independent for the first time ever. Joe Biden, in the first week of being in office did away with that. He even start buying millions of dollars of Russian oil (which, by the way, is some of the dirtiest, most polluting oil in the world) to make up for what he did away with. Trump had a specific, structured plan for our exit from Afghanistan. Joe Biden did nothing with that plan except to claim the due date was there and pull everyone out, leaving behind Americans, Allies, and several billion dollars worth of military equipment to the people that have sworn to destroy us. The Dems fought against opening the economy, screaming about Covid, and pushed for more and more “free money” give-aways. Now the bill is coming due and inflation is at a 40 year high. Every aspect of Biden’s time in office has been a disaster. And people can look back to see that what Trump had in place was working and what Biden has done isn’t. It isn’t a hard decision when you look at it.
The biggest challenge to Trump is other Republicans that might run like DeSantis.